I haven’t had the time to type up the answer to yesterday’s quiz, so instead why not a World Cup open thread? It was pretty easy to discern the pattern in the quarterfinals, where Portugal beat England, Italy beat the Ukraine, France beat Brazil, and Germany beat Argentina — all of the Eurozone squads were victorious, while those nations still puttering along with their local currencies were left to go home and lick their wounds. Hooray for globalization!
But what is it that separates Les Bleus and the Azzurri, victorious in the semifinals, from their opponents? I mean, besides a bluish tinge, a strong wine tradition, almost identical flags, and amazing goals? (And being picked by me to lose?) Eventually it hit me: these were the countries that have been home to Popes! Sometimes simultaneously!
So what will happen in Sunday’s final? Italy has had more Popes, but France has been more of a leader in unifying Europe. A titanic struggle between the temporal and spiritual realms awaits. Allez les Bleus! Forza Italia! (I will, at the time, actually be in Italy, so I’m leaning slightly Forza over Allez, but I wouldn’t bet against that Zizou guy in his last professional game.)
I’ll probably get lambasted for this, but I believe there is a huge element of luck at this level. I believe this is partially due to the very low scoring. If you can “sneak one in” or accidentaly interfere to yield a penalty shot, the resulting one goal lead gives a huge advantage. If the average number of goals was say 3 or 4, this luck element would be somewhat mitigated. (Disclaimer: I know almost nothing about soccer, being your average American sports fan).
Prediction: >100 comments on this post.
Bob.
France wins 4-3 over Italy after exciting 90 minutes that also feature a missed penalty kick and numerous near-misses.
(Sorry, wrong decade…)
Well Poland has had a pope (only one, but the second-longest serving) and does not have the Euro. It didn’t make it out of the group games.
My money’s on France.
“Victory belongs to the most Persevering”
— Napoleon
Endurance plays a major factor, player conditioning & the ability to play a solid game (start to finish)..& under tournament conditions (successive games can be a real strain). Younger players have the energy, but older players have the experience.
Youthful Exuberance VS Experienced Veteran.
It’s a Complex System (lots of factors), like auto-racing..a Caltech Nonlinear Dynamics & Control professor has a writeup of it (one of his students ended up at Williams F1 team).
“The reward is in the Journey [ tournament play ]”
— John Wooden
[ “Wizard of Westwood”, UCLA coach, multiple NCAA championships ]
Maybe France snuck up on everybody, not a lot of hoopla, but just played steady (“Steady as she goes”, is the naval-saying)..conserving their Energy. Whoola, they’re in the Championship Game. Italy maybe got in because of their feistiness.
I think A. Olinto mentioned something about Brazil (@SUSY ’06 lecture), about how she was disappointed in their play. Classic symptoms of a let down for a superior-team. Just like how Russia got beat by Team USA in the famous ’80 Winter Olympics (who they beat, like 10-1 in a pre-Olympics game), they had a letdown & USA “stole” the game.
A coach is just as much a psychologist, as well as a strategist. He is responsible for keeping the players mentally psyched, as well as physically prepared.
“The E-M-O-T-I-O-N, & the team which stays away from injuries in the playoffs”
— Barry Melrose, on NHL playoffs
When I think of Italy, I think of emotion..very expressive culture. My sister is a biochemistry prof in France, that country must be all excited.
It should be pointed out that the European Economic Community (EEC), that became the European Union, started with the signing of Treaty of Rome in 1957 by France, West Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg.
If you’ll be in Italy during the World Cup Final, I’d suggest you not to shout Forza Italia since that’s the name of Berlusconi’s party. Now it’s politically correct to say Forza Azzurri instead.
Forza Italia! Good work, Sean. We forget about physics and talk about Italia instead!
Uncle Enzo’s prediction:
Italy 1
France 0
Germany 2
Portugal 1
Italia kick ass! Forza Italia! Forza Italia!
Can I-a cut-a your hair sometime, Sean?
Forza!
Sure, but in order to “sneak one in” at this level it takes an enormous amount of talent, not luck.
Sean, be prepared for what might be the craziest place you’ve ever been to if they win! total pandemonuim…
italy will fake numerous injuries, as usual; intentionally attempt to injure opposing players, as usual; use chicanery to achieve a couple deciding free kicks, as usual; and ultimately win, and return to their country whose premier league is embroiled in fraud and racist fan tauntings, with the world cup whose theme was “fair play”.
quarkdoll is anti-Italian! He should be charged with hate crimes! Look at what he said! It’s a hate crime!
Forza Italia!
“Sure, but in order to “sneak one in” at this level it takes an enormous amount of talent, not luck.”
Given 2 “strikers” of considerably different talent, say S1 and S2 where S1 >> S2. Both blast long shots. S2’s shot happens to deflect off a player for a goal. S1’s shot, perhaps more accurate and higher velocity, is not “luckily” deflected and is rejected by the goal keeper. In a very low scoring game, S2’s side wins by say 1-0. In a higher scoring game, S2’s lucky shot would be washed out by several goals of the more talented team.
sean,
i am glad you will be here to watch the game but please do NOT say FORZA Italia….rather VIVA AZZURRI or anything else but no FORZA!….. have fun, not only during the game, italy is a great place (as you might have already discovered) cheers.
I have been to Italy many times, and discovered that it’s a great place. Spent time in a small village square on Elba, where the whole town was gathered to watch a soccer game projected onto a building wall, rooting crazily for their team. A shame that Berlusconi had to go and ruin a perfectly good rallying cry.
The morning after the Italy win over Germany, and my town went wild, I woke up to a number of slogans fingermarked into the dirt of the windows of my old car. Instead of the typical “Please wash me”, the kids in my neighborhood had written “Viva Italia! and “Victory Italia!”, but the symbol for victory was a double interlocked V which looks like a “W”. Also written on my dirty windows was the other side: an upside-down W which looks like an interlocked “M” (Lose) Germania”, and some slang about the Germans that one wouldn’t want to repeat to one’s mother. Please do _not_ say Forza Italia. Berlusconi and his party are unpopular nowadays, and people will know immediately that you are a foreigner.
If you are in Rome for the match on Sunday, the best place to see the game will probably be around San Giovanni (with big screen) because that is a favorite meeting area for Romans. There will be large TV screens scattered at other places in the city, perhaps even along Via della Conciliazione, (just outside the Vatican), where the world’s attention on the the Pope was focused last year.
Allez les Bleus!
They deserve to win. The Italians got this far because of their acting ability, not their football skills. They belong in Hollywood, not on the football field.
Who’s refereeing the final match? Hopefully, it’ll be one of the refs who realizes what Italy’s trying to pull and doesn’t put up with any of their B.S.
Sean,
You’ve probably seen it already, but the most sublime goal of the tournament was Maxi Rodriguez’s volley for Argentina against Mexico.
If France wins, would it be the oldest team ever to win the WC?
This time last year France lost it’s “olympic bid”, by one vote, (although I recall a number of fouls committed during the voting process!) I just hope “The best team wins” ?
This World Cup has thrown up some odd results, for me the best team was I believe Germany, followed by Mexico, just for the superb game they played against Argentina.
But this is football, and anything (and most often does happen in the last 90 seconds of normal time!) can happen.
Just a thought about football matches in general, does anyone know the likely odds (probability) of a match result in say a 90 second period?..for instance if the Italy-Germany match was replayed, but just a 90 second match instead of 90 minutes (thats what occurred), would such a match yield the same result?
I guess I am asking if the previous 90 minutes of play, before Italy scored 2 goals, had a significant baring on the match outcome?
I know there are a lot of variables in the 90 minutes previous to the last 90 seconds, but the fact remains the match was pretty much in an equilibrium state 0-0 over 90 minutes of play, then in just 90 seconds, there was a chaotic inbalance?..over 90 seconds from 90 minutes.
Is this coincidental?
The comments about “acting” are probably true..I recall seeing a game (forgot the matchup, Italy & Germany?) where a player “flopped” after contact. Looked really suspicious..an attempt to break-up the flow of the game.
In Basketball & Hockey (similar to Soccer, center & 2 forwards..etc), they call acting “floppping” (over embelishing a foul by an opposing player, aka “Emmy award”) & “diving” (trying to get a Tripping penalty on an opposing player), respectively. I even saw a hockey-player (Mathew Barnaby, renowned for his “clownish behavior”) rear-his-head-backwards, to try to get a referee to call a penalty (punching) on the opposing player. In Hockey, the lack of enforcement by referees, has led to a self-enforcing system: “Fighting” (at 1st glance, unsportsmanlike) is a part-of-the-game! I.e., a cheap-shot will warrant a retaliation by the other team..there are “enforcers” (“goons” who are known more for their fighting/intimidation skills, than hockey skills) who are inserted into the game to “exact justice”.
[ In Hockey, there is the Instigator Rule..full of flaws. I.e., Team A could intentionally decide to provoke Team B with a cheap-shot (unseen by referree), which “baits” Team B into a “reaction/retaliation”. Team B’s player gets tossed into the Penalty Box, Team A gets a power-play for 2 min..& opportunity to score. Team A gets an advantage, by playing dirty. There’s no Justice in the World. ]
In Baseball, there are always these gigantic bench clearing incidents, sometimes brawls. I.e., Team A disrespects Team B (hitting a batter) & Team B retaliates. ( As in Hockey, the retaliating Team B gets their player thrown out). This part of Baseball I dislike (what ever happened to Sportsmanship?), what an example to set for kids who goto a baseball game as a family outing! I suppose GWB being the former owner of the Texas Rangers, he thinks this kind of juvenile/immature behavior is OK in US foreign policy..case in point, the Iraq invasion: “we don’t THINK, we REACT”
“I’ve got this really MORON thing I do, it’s called THINKING..& I’m not a very good American, because I like to form my own opinions”
“I believe NOTHING the govt tells me, NADA”
— George Carlin, comedian
[ he’s an amateur-astronomer, reads Physics books ]
Oh, back to “Acting” in Soccer & it’s tactical usefulness in “stealing” a Win.
“When someone Cheats, EVERYBODY Loses”
[ from the scandal in Little League baseball championships, the star-pitcher for Team USA was found to have doctored birth records ]
“Ever since there has been games, there has been cheating”
[ the scandal involving networked computer games ]
The descriptor “Poser” is used in many realms, to describe a phony or faker. Formula 1 was hit by a mini-scandal a few yrs ago, when Team Ferrari (“Forza Ferrari”, those passionate Italian fans..) rigged a win for M. Schumacher: R. Barrichello (Brazilian, btw) was leading, but let M. Schumacher by on the last lap/last-turn, to give Schumi the win. This drew widespread outrage around the world..”the fix was in”
“Cheaters never Prosper”
“You can’t soar like an Eagle, if you’re stuck with a bunch of Turkeys”
— NHL commentator
Go France!
Oh, back to “Acting” in Soccer & it’s tactical usefulness in “stealing” a Win.
“When someone Cheats, EVERYBODY Loses”
“Cheaters never Prosper”
“You can’t soar like an Eagle, if you’re stuck with a bunch of Turkeys”
Does this apply to Quantum Mechanics, specifically:Renormalization, sums over histories, hidden variables and dare I say it stringtheory?
Albert Einstein:God Does not play dice!
Niels Bohr:Stop telling God the rule’s of the game? 😉
It’s the wine tradition, stupid. Clearly. No doubt. Vive le vin!!
Hey, I’m glad someone was seeing the metaphor between 2 manifestations of Game Theory: Soccer & Scientific Research. Flaws in the rules-of-the-game, inevitably lead to abuse by certain “opportunists”.
I was at a conference in 2001 & used these quotes:
“If you can Convince them, Confuse them”
“If you can’t dazzle them with Brilliance, baffle them with Bullsh*t”
“You can’t make chicken-salad, out of chicken-sh*t”
There was a joint paper from Stanford, MIT, Utah (postdoc with endorsement from his famous Stanford prof who’s a total phony) which was a “manufactured paper” based on artistic image (“pretty picture”, a diplomatic term for “no scientific value what-so-ever”). Worthless junk.
I think ST is part of a *comprehensive* toolset that should be tried.
I had a long conversation with a Caltech CS prof recently, & he told me that in his field there wasn’t any single model, but a bunch of models that gave insight to the problem. I like the legal term “Preponderance of Evidence” (i.e., “surround the problem with a bunch of models”), to give “conviction” to a discovery. Legal system..now THAT’s a universe full of Acting!..grandstanding, posturing, all sorts of idiotic games being played.
The “luck factor” was brought up by an early poster..very true. But, there are also other factors..a complex-system of interacting non-orthogonal factors.
“..the Nobel Prize is awarded not to the best physicist, but to the ones who make discoveries [ Luck, “serendipity”, along with ability to recognize something ]”
“Want to be a great Physicist..BETTER HAVE A LOT OF LUCK!”
— Leon Lederman
[ from “Student to Scientist” ]
“I’d rather be LUCKY than Good…any day!”
— famous saying in Auto-Racing
“Research is about not knowing what you’re doing [ fooling around, trying out weird/crazy ideas ]”
“I goto work, & just try crazy ideas [ “genetic algorithm” ]”
— Dr. Paul MacCready/Aerovironment, famous Caltech aeronautics PhD
“I don’t what I’m doing, but it sure as heck is FUN! ”
— Herman Munster, “The Munsters”
[ episode where Herman is in the Dungeon, playing with Grandpa’s weird science contraption..I will upload this video soon ]
Hence, my signon is “Chimpanzee” since significant research comes about after some serious “monkeying around” (Chimps, Gorillas, Man are primates..monkey have tails, please ignore the anthopological incorrectness)
“Hey hey we’re the monkeys!! hey hey we’re the monkeys!!..ALL WE DO IS MONKEY AROUND”
— Sam Kinison, comedian
Paul Valletta #18
“but the fact remains the match was pretty much in an equilibrium state 0-0 over 90 minutes of play, then in just 90 seconds, there was a chaotic inbalance?..over 90 seconds from 90 minutes.”
The Italian team had significantly more shots on the goal (10 vs 2) and kept the ball more (57% vs. 43%), however. Statistics.
Don’t worry, about the scandals, you who think that the national Italian clubs should ‘pay’ for that. They are. The public seems to be generally upset by the scandals, even one of the most popular figures in Italy today, comedian/activist Beppe Grillo, has publically stated his disgust. There is some action this week about the scandals, by the way. I think that the national teams will need some years to recover.
I don’t have a preference who wins. My hope is that the game be as exciting as the Germany / Italian game. I think my American colleagues presently here for a meeting would like Italy to win, just for the cultural experience.
Italy has 5 players from Juventus. France has 3 players from Juventus. Furthermore there are 4 ex-players from Juventus. This makes clear who wins.
I am backing Italy. They have been very unlucky in 1990 , 1994 and 1998
(losing in pentaly shootouts in the above worldcups). Hope they can pull it
off this time