This is a special guest post by Ian Harry, postdoctoral physicist at the Max Planck Institute for Gravitational Physics, Potsdam-Golm. You may have seen stories about a paper that recently appeared, which called into question whether the LIGO gravitational-wave observatory had actually detected signals from inspiralling black holes, as they had claimed. Ian’s post is an informal response to these claims, on behalf of the LIGO Scientific Collaboration. He argues that there are data-analysis issues that render the new paper, by James Creswell et al., incorrect. Happily, there are sufficient online tools that this is a question that interested parties can investigate for themselves. Here’s Ian:

On 13 Jun 2017 a paper appeared on the arXiv titled “On the time lags of the LIGO signals” by Creswell et al. This paper calls into question the 5-sigma detection claim of GW150914 and following detections. In this short response I will refute these claims.

Who am I? I am a member of the LIGO collaboration. I work on the analysis of LIGO data, and for 10 years have been developing searches for compact binary mergers. The conclusions I draw here have been checked by a number of colleagues within the LIGO and Virgo collaborations. We are also in touch with the authors of the article to raise these concerns directly, and plan to write a more formal short paper for submission to the arXiv explaining in more detail the issues I mention below. In the interest of timeliness, and in response to numerous requests from outside of the collaboration, I am sharing these notes in the hope that they will clarify the situation.

In this article I will go into some detail to try to refute the claims of Creswell et al. Let me start though by trying to give a brief overview. In Creswell et al. the authors take LIGO data made available through the LIGO Open Science Data from the Hanford and Livingston observatories and perform a simple Fourier analysis on that data. They find the noise to be correlated as a function of frequency. They also perform a time-domain analysis and claim that there are correlations between the noise in the two observatories, which is present after removing the GW150914 signal from the data. These results are used to cast doubt on the reliability of the GW150914 observation. There are a number of reasons why this conclusion is incorrect: 1. The frequency-domain correlations they are seeing arise from the way they do their FFT on the filtered data. We have managed to demonstrate the same effect with simulated Gaussian noise. 2. LIGO analyses use whitened data when searching for compact binary mergers such as GW150914. When repeating the analysis of Creswell et al. on whitened data these effects are completely absent. 3. Our 5-sigma significance comes from a procedure of repeatedly time-shifting the data, which is not invalidated if correlations of the type described in Creswell et al. are present.

**Section II: The curious case of the Fourier phase correlations?**

The main result (in my opinion) from section II of Creswell et al. is Figure 3, which shows that, when one takes the Fourier transform of the LIGO data containing GW150914, and plots the Fourier phases as a function of frequency, one can see a clear correlation (ie. all the points line up, especially for the Hanford data). I was able to reproduce this with the LIGO Open Science Center data and a small ipython notebook. I make the ipython notebook available so that the reader can see this, and some additional plots, and reproduce this.

For Gaussian noise we would expect the Fourier phases to be distributed randomly (between -pi and pi). Clearly in the plot shown above, and in Creswell et al., this is not the case. However, the authors overlooked one critical detail here. When you take a Fourier transform of a time series you are implicitly assuming that the data are cyclical (i.e. that the first point is adjacent to the last point). For *colored* Gaussian noise this assumption will lead to a discontinuity in the data at the two end points, because these data are *not* causally connected. This discontinuity can be responsible for misleading plots like the one above.

To try to demonstrate this I perform two tests. First I *whiten *the colored LIGO noise by measuring the power spectral density (see the LOSC example, which I use directly in my ipython notebook, for some background on colored noise and noise power spectral density), then dividing the data in the Fourier domain by the power spectral density, and finally converting back to the time domain. This process will corrupt some data at the edges so after *whitening* we only consider the middle half of the data. Then we can make the same plot:

And we can see that there are now *no* correlations visible in the data. For white Gaussian noise there is no correlation between adjacent points, so no discontinuity is introduced when treating the data as cyclical. I therefore assert that Figure 3 of Creswell et al. actually has no meaning when generated using anything other than whitened data.

I would also like to mention that measuring the noise power spectral density of LIGO data can be challenging when the data are non-stationary and include spectral lines (as Creswell et al. point out). Therefore it can be difficult to whiten data in many circumstances. For the Livingston data some of the spectral lines are still clearly present after whitening (using the methods described in the LOSC example), and then mild correlations are present in the resulting plot (see ipython notebook). This is *not* indicative of any type of non-Gaussianity, but demonstrates that measuring the noise power-spectral density of LIGO noise is difficult, and, especially for parameter inference, a lot of work has been spent on answering this question.

To further illustrate that features like those seen in Figure 3 of Creswell et al. can be seen in *known* Gaussian noise I perform an additional check (suggested by my colleague Vivien Raymond). I generate a 128 second stretch of white Gaussian noise (using numpy.random.normal) and invert the whitening procedure employed on the LIGO data above to produce 128 seconds of colored Gaussian noise. Now the data, previously random, are ‘colored’ Coloring the data in the manner I did makes the full data set cyclical (the last point *is* correlated with the first) so taking the Fourier transform of the complete data set, I see the expected random distribution of phases (again, see the ipython notebook). However, If I select 32s from the middle of this data, introducing a discontinuity as I mention above, I can produce the following plot:

In other words, I can produce an *even more* extremely correlated example than on the real data, with *actual* Gaussian noise.

**Section III: The data is strongly correlated even after removing the signal**

The second half of Creswell et al. explores correlations between the data taken from Hanford and Livingston around GW150914. For me, the main conclusion here is communicated in Figure 7, where Creswell et al. claim that even after removal of the GW150914 best-fit waveform there is still correlation in the data between the two observatories. This is a result I have not been able to reproduce. Nevertheless, if such a correlation were present it would suggest that we have not perfectly subtracted the real signal from the data, which would *not* invalidate any detection claim. There could be any number of reasons for this, for example the fact that our best-fit waveform will not exactly match what is in the data as we cannot measure all parameters with infinite precision. There might also be some deviations because the waveform models we used, while very good, are only approximations to the real signal (LIGO put out a paper quantifying this possibility). Such deviations might also be indicative of a subtle deviation from general relativity. These are of course things that LIGO is very interested in pursuing, and we have published a paper exploring potential deviations from general relativity (finding no evidence for that), which includes looking for a residual signal in the data after subtraction of the waveform (and again finding no evidence for that).

Finally, LIGO runs “unmodelled” searches, which do not search for specific signals, but instead look for any coherent non-Gaussian behaviour in the observatories. These searches actually were the first to find GW150914, and did so with remarkably consistent parameters to the modelled searches, something which we would not expect to be true if the modelled searches are “missing” some parts of the signal.

With that all said I try to reproduce Figure 7. First I begin by cross-correlating the Hanford and Livingston data, after whitening and band-passing, in a *very* narrow 0.02s window around GW150914. This produces the following:

There is a clear spike here at 7ms (which is GW150914), with some expected “ringing” behaviour around this point. This is a much less powerful method to extract the signal than matched-filtering, but it is completely signal independent, and illustrates how loud GW150914 is. Creswell et al. however, do not discuss their normalization of this cross-correlation, or how likely a deviation like this is to occur from noise alone. Such a study would be needed before stating that this is significant—In this case we know this signal is significant from other, more powerful, tests of the data. Then I repeat this but after having removed the best-fit waveform from the data in both observatories (using only products made available in the LOSC example notebooks). This gives:

This shows nothing interesting at all.

**Section IV: Why would such correlations not invalidate the LIGO detections?**

Creswell et al. claim that correlations between the Hanford and Livingston data, which in their results appear to be maximized around the time delay reported for GW150914, raised questions on the integrity of the detection. They do not. The authors claim early on in their article that LIGO data analysis assumes that the data are Gaussian, independent and stationary. In fact, we know that LIGO data are neither Gaussian nor stationary and if one reads through the technical paper accompanying the detection PRL, you can read about the many tests we run to try to distinguish between non-Gaussianities in our data and real signals. But in doing such tests, we raise an important question: “If you see something loud, how can you be sure it is not some chance instrumental artifact, which somehow was missed in the various tests that you do”. Because of this we have to be very careful when assessing the significance (in terms of sigmas—or the *p-value*, to use the correct term). We assess the significance using a process called time-shifts. We first look through all our data to look for *loud events* within the 10ms time-window corresponding to the light travel time between the two observatories. Then we look again. Except the second time we look we shift *ALL* of the data from Livingston by 0.1s. This delay is much larger than the light travel time so if we see any interesting “events” now they cannot be genuine astrophysical events, but must be some noise transient. We then repeat this process with a 0.2s delay, 0.3s delay and so on up to time delays on the order of weeks long. In this way we’ve conducted of order 10 million experiments. For the case of GW150914 the signal in the non-time shifted data was louder than *any* event we saw in *any* of the time-shifted runs—all 10 million of them. In fact, it was still *a lot* louder than any event in the time-shifted runs as well. Therefore we can say that this is a 1-in-10-million event, without making any assumptions at all about our noise. Except one. The assumption is that the analysis with Livingston data shifted by e.g. 8s (or any of the other time shifts) is equivalent to the analysis with the Livingston data not shifted at all. Or, in other words, we assume that there is nothing special about the non-time shifted analysis (other than it might contain real signals!). As well as the technical papers, this is also described in the science summary that accompanied the GW150914 PRL.

Nothing in the paper “On the time lags of the LIGO signals” suggests that the non-time shifted analysis is special. The claimed correlations between the two detectors due to resonance and calibration lines in the data would be present also in the time-shifted analyses—The calibration lines are repetitive lines, and so if correlated in the non-time shift analyses, they will also be correlated in the time-shift analyses as well. I should also note that potential correlated noise sources was explored in another of the companion papers to the GW150914 PRL. Therefore, taking the results of this paper at face value, I see nothing that calls into question the “integrity” of the GW150914 detection.

**Section V: Wrapping up**

I have tried to reproduce the results quoted in “On the time lags of the LIGO signals”. I find the claims of section 2 are due to an issue in how the data is Fourier transformed, and do not reproduce the correlations claimed in section 3. Even if taking the results at face value, it would not affect the 5-sigma confidence associated with GW150914. Nevertheless I am in contact with the authors and we will try to understand these discrepancies.

For people interested in trying to explore LIGO data, check out the LIGO Open Science Center tutorials. As someone who was involved in the internal review of the LOSC data products it is rewarding to see these materials being used. It is true that these tutorials are intended as an introduction to LIGO data analysis, and do not accurately reflect many of the intricacies of these studies. For the interested reader a number of technical papers, for example this one, accompany the main PRL and within this paper and its references you can find all the nitty-gritty about how our analyses work. Finally, the PyCBC analysis toolkit, which was used to obtain the 5-sigma confidence, and of which I am one of the primary developers, is available open-source on git-hub. There are instructions here and also a number of examples that illustrate a number of aspects of our data analysis methods.

This article was circulated in the LIGO-Virgo Public Outreach and Education mailing list before being made public, and I am grateful to comments and feedback from: Christopher Berry, Ofek Birnholtz, Alessandra Buonanno, Gregg Harry, Martin Hendry, Daniel Hoak, Daniel Holz, David Keitel, Andrew Lundgren, Harald Pfeiffer, Vivien Raymond, Jocelyn Read and David Shoemaker.

Thanks very much for this post!

The very very first thing I learned when using FFTs is to carefully choose the window function, as the window function will influence the output. If you do “not choose” a window function, you use a rectangular window, which in many (most?) cases is the worst choice – as for example it handles the discontinuity at the windows edges the worst of all window functions.

So I find it interesting when I see people happily using the FFT, but then they are totally oblivious to the selection of a window function – “look ma, no hands!” comes to my mind. It makes me sad every time I see a FFT being used for the search of spurious signals (that may or may not be there), and then people do not discuss the selection of the window function, indicating that they might know little about the tools they so casually use.

Suppose it was not a real correlation but only a noise fluctuation, the fact remains that it resembles precisely the merging of a pair of black holes. In my view this makes it not only a real correlation but a very significant one. I wonder why this fact is not mentioned.

Another example: if we have two long binary sequences of which one contains a segment that correlates exactly with a segment of the other then this can be the result of a random fluctuation. However, if there is also a correlation with a pdeudo random sequence obtained with a particular generator polynomial then it seems reasonable to suppose that both segments were in fact generated using this particular generator polynomial.

I would be interested in hearing if anybody has done any runs for the data to check potential events having larger than 10ms, say from 10ms up to 50ms, gap. Some searches might be ongoing but I haven’t seen any results yet.

Dear Ian,

Allow me a few questions on your very helpful post:

1. You write about Creswell’s et al. claimed time lag

of about 7 msec in noise at the time before and

during GW150914:

“This is a result I have not been able to reproduce.”

Does this mean that your analysis is the first time LIGO looks

into the possibility of correlations in the noise

with signal-time lags? (The paper you quote in this

connection (arxiv:1602.03844) does not seem to address it.)

2. The result u report in this connection (unnumbered figure before

Section IV) seems based on the analysis of a 0.02 s time window

around GW150914. However isn’t fig. 7 of Creswell et al. based

on a 0.2 s wide window?

3. In section V you argue “even taking the results

[of Creswell et al.] at face value, it would not affect

the 5-sigma confidence associated with GW0150914”. Are

u serious? OK, it would not affect the purely

statistical significance (which Creswell et al. never

put into question). But the diffcult bit are

the systematic errors:

If the noise would show the same 7 msec delay

than the signal, it would indicate a completely unknown

and unexpected source of noise with the “correct” time lag

for a signal. Right? And in this case how could one trust the signal?

4. Already last September two of the authors of Creswell et al.

published a peer-reviewed paper (in JCAP) in which they report

a 45 minutes long event in the LIGO data of possible astrophysical

origin starting 10 minutes before GW150914

with a significance of 3.2 sigma (arxiv:1609.08346). Did LIGO reanalyze its

data to check their claim?

If not, why not?

As Tony said the problem is with the windowing. For example, if one replaces the line

hf = np.fft.rfft(strain_H1_GW150914)

with

dwindow = signal.tukey(strain_H1_GW150914.size, alpha=1./8)

hf = np.fft.rfft(strain_H1_GW150914*dwindow)

the phase plot becomes random. So it boils down to which of the above equation(s) one would use. For a good data analyst the choice is obvious!

Maurice,

Regarding (4), the LIGO/Virgo stochastic group worked with the authors to understand their results. We were not able to reproduce them, found no evidence of excess correlation between the two LIGO detectors around GW150914. It appeared that Hao et al. didn’t properly clean the data (in particular didn’t remove noise lines carefully) and the conclusion of our investigations was that the significance of the outlier they associated with an astrophysical event was marginal: ~1/40 and compatible with noise.

I hope this will address your concern. We can give more details if needed.

Given the technical detection merits of LIGO, I am optimistic that even if it is “noise”, it is a beautiful noise . The appreciation is in the listening.

Dr Sean Carroll,

The fact that the correlation resembles the merging of black holes is not mentioned in this discussion. Me thinks this is not like seeing a face in a cloud. So why is it not mentioned?

‘This discontinuity can be responsible for misleading plots like the one above.’

I would think that in order to produce the 3rd graph (the one with a contrived discontinuity in the coloured Gaussian noise) you would need a big amplitude discontinuity and presumably one chosen within the noise as such, i.e. an anomalously high time domain step function is effectively being introduced into the noise. Of course FFTs are more generally performed on data which is inherently cyclic and then the spectra are averaged, which just shows how demanding this type of very low amplitude, single-pass detection is. The real issue of course is whether the phase-frequency points on the particular plot produced by Creswell et al (the first one here) is in reality dominated by a discontinuity in the noise time domain signal or by either real extraneous interference or an artifact of the detector system.

As well as ‘non-guassianities’ there is of course the possibility of a non-astrophysical and non-instrumental signal coupling electromagnetically into the instrumentation with a time difference in the same range as a real astrophysical signal.

Bandpass filtering obviously alters time domain impulse response, so the output is not totally ‘signal-independent’. So I assume the filtering was designed to render the expected GW signals faithfully whilst maintaining specificity.

The experiment is audacious and I hope consensus on the results can be reached.

About the article “On the time lags of the LIGO signals”, I found myself quite in awe after reading how they come to the same conclusions as I did a year ago when I wrote a similar analysis, performing an statistical simulation using R language and finding out signal could be perfectly noise-induced.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ligo-gravitational-waves-real-just-noise-juan-ignacio-p%C3%A9rez-sacrist%C3%A1n

Best regards!

Ian : You mention

“Nevertheless, if such a correlation were present it would suggest that we have not perfectly subtracted the real signal from the data, which would not invalidate any detection claim. There could be any number of reasons for this, for example the fact that our best-fit waveform will not exactly match what is in the data as we cannot measure all parameters with infinite precision. There might also be some deviations because the waveform models we used, while very good, are only approximations to the real signal “. However, doesn’t this contradict the claim in arxiv:1602.03841 in the section titled

“Residuals after subtracting the most-probable waveform model. ” To quote from this paper,

“Our analysis reveals that the GW150914 residual favors the instrumental noise hypothesis over the presence of a coherent signal as well as the presence of glitches in either detectors;”

So does it mean with more sensitive analysis, one could detect correlation between the residuals? Or did I misunderstand the statement in arxiv:1602.03841?

We need something like a VLA of sensitive gravity wave interferometers to pinpoint the location of black holes. That would allow us to do traditional optical and radio astronomy as well in order to nail down the mass of the new more massive black hole and satisfy the critics.

The reply to the reply is here:

http://www.nbi.ku.dk/gravitational-waves/gravitational-waves.html

Dear Tania,

thanks indeed for this info!

Yes, I would be very interested in more details.

In particular I would be interested in your model of the background noise on time scales of one

hour. Can one find anything on this in your published papers?

It would be great if you could make a short informal report of your analysis of the “signal” of Liu & Jackson publicly available (even if you deem it too unimportant for formal publication). I mean for better or worse their paper made it in the peer reviewed literature. LIGO/VIRGO

must give some reasonably complete comment, no?